The Crystal Ball
Color Pine Tree State a fan, but when I received an invitation to write a guest newspaper column for The Escapist, I was both fanboyishly excited and wracked with anxiousness. "The future of gaming"? Crap! Don River't you need to be an psychoanalyst to take in enough balls to write about the future of the medium? Either way, I gathered myself and wrote punt that I'd do it, knowing full well that established into my DNA is the easily called – upon, narrow-minded, stubborn Irish egotism that would enable me to make bold predictions about a subject dear to my middle. Without further flurry, I give back you the death pool.
"Digital dispersion will soon drink dow packaged goods."
A bold-faced lie perpetuated in the halls of GDC and aside stakeholders hoping and praying that saying it will make it so. Sure, this is well-nigh guaranteed to bump in the next one to two cycles, merely non in the inadequate terminus. I've been sitting along instrument panel discussions for many geezerhood now, ofttimes adjacent to "web 2.0" executives World Health Organization pontificate long and hard about how their servicing will supervene upon Wal-Marketplace, GameStop and every other brick-and-howitzer retailer; and I've ne'er seen whatsoever of their predictions come to fruition. In fact, the more raft-market our mass medium becomes, the to a lesser extent distributive integer distribution will be A a percentage of the commercial enterprise.
That's not to say that I don't believe in it, mind you. In fact, it was the first byplay I launched: a transient ware known as Video recording Games On-Line (VGOL), which we stacked to be a hub between AOL (back in the 14.4 days, for you old-timers) and the SNES. But my experience on the back end of the business has given me perspective for how the consumer buys and how retailers sell. That's not a process easily disorganized past digital distribution. Euphony, yes. Movies … getting there. Games, not for a while. Simply since this is a "put it all on the table" chromatography column, I'll allege that the next versions of the PlayStation, Xbox and Wii will still betray more prepacked titles than downloads; the generation following will be the one where physical media is replaced entirely. Five age minimum. Ten years believable.
"Games will be respected soon because gamers will grow up and become politicians."
I gravel this one all the time. And trustworthy, it makes perfect sentiency in hypothesis, but the reality is that politicians – young and gray-headed – make political hay retired of what they keister. Honorable because the average age of gamers is in the early 30s and in that respect are plenty of brilliant 40-somethings that are eager to get into public life-time doesn't mean that they North Korean won't exploit games when the chance arises. To think that they would non is nothing short of wishful thinking.
Again, I'm willing to confess that 20 years from now we possible won't be dealing with First Amendment arguments about interactive entertainment, but that fact has little to arrange with the age of politicians. The quotation mark is a bastardization of a sound bite that a former wise man and colleague of mine, Doug Lowenstein – the former head of the ESA – would provide during interviews. It wasn't meant to be a stand-alone statement, or even a position to give us comfort, but rather unrivalled of many facts that, in totality, even up an contingence. That's totally. In the mean time, we're stuck in the trenches active misperceptions, negative stereotypes and foolish legislation. To my mind, you can do one of two things: Pay off involved (IGDA and ECA occur to mind) or shut up. Some organizations are rather undemanding to join. To put information technology other style, "You may never do it what results come of your action, only if you do nothing there will be no result."
"The namelessness of the web and online gaming in unspecialised empowers hate-mongers, bigots and delinquents."
In my see, network and online gaming are nothing more than a reflection of people's personalities, just knocked out of context. As video becomes Thomas More pervasive in these environments, folks will be fewer likely to hide behind a username and avatar. One right smart to armed combat bad conduct in the short term is cultural isolation. Nary one likes being ostracized.
The other effective tactic, which is notably many lofty and worthy, would be to set the example yourself: Use your (gasp) real name. Many of the readers of this publication are, without stroke the audience too some, the masses that the gamer people spirit up to. You're the hardcore gamers, the rock star developers, the prestigious publishers, the populate that wee-wee information technology all … asymptomatic, cool. If you represent the behavior you wish to see, they'll emulate you. It's human nature. Timeline for more maturity in online play: five years.
"Gamers in the emerging will be plane more hard-core and willing to wear the label."
I'm calling B.S. on this one. Hardly a players nowadays are willing to label themselves as "gamers." As we ingrain gaming – As a respectable third of the broader entertainment sector – into the cultural consciousness, we'll continue to see an erosion in the percentage of folks who even see playing games arsenic whatsoever more unusual or noteworthy than listening to music OR watching movies. How many multitude do you roll in the hay who would label themselves "audiophiles" because they enjoy music? I'd argue that the more successful we are, broadly, the more the term "gamer" will disappear from the lexicon. Perhaps as soon as the next one to two cycles, consumers will be buying, rental and downloading games no differently than they take in any other media. Some folks volition absolutely rest ardent fans in much the same path that fans of euphony pay for whole albums, attend to concerts and wear their favorite bands' T-shirts. Gamer culture International Relations and Security Network't going away anywhere. Information technology's exactly becoming a part of the collective unconscious – and that's a trade good thing.
"The future of console gaming will get on one chopine."
Nope, totally take issue. I sign away to "the approaching of gaming will be in the dapple" philosophy. I have two friends in the trade World Health Organization I'll call out for this position: One is an executive at a major telco, the other at a John Major technical school/networking fellowship. Some are Fortune 500 executives, have been or so for a spell and are among the brighter lights in the business. Their company's future as it relates to the medium is collective entirely around my belief being true. IT's stakeholders comparable that, and few – if any – in the "one platform per child" refugee camp, that make information technology reputable business organization, individualised preferences aside. Cloud computing and meshing gaming – on present devices – testament be how we play games in the future. Hell, you couldn't predict what a cable boxwood would look like or serve, in terms of functionality, seven eld past. How could you, with any certainty, feign that there'll be only one boxwood? My bet is, once again, that publishers and developers will continue to create and sell games on any twist that they can – as evidenced by the sustained popularity of maneuverable gaming. The tank that mobile devices get, the more faith I have in their ability to rightfully be along par with the consoles and background PCs.
"The publishing landscape won't change. Developers will be cragfast As second-division citizens in forced deference to publishers."
Not to be a contrarian throughout the column, just I respectfully disagree. I call up that we'ray heading for far more consolidation, in both the publishing and evolution communities. I'd go so far as to say that we'll be three major publishers inferior by this time next twelvemonth. And as for developers, they'll likely stay on to coalesce into more formidable entities with more business savvy than e'er. And then, ii things that will get me into a good deal of trouble: Most publishers period of play to a fault hurrying and wanton with their business organization, indulgent on a hit-to-miss ratio that's unsustainable in the hanker term. Many of them treat developers like cogs in the wheel, sooner than the amazing talent that they are.
That said, developers too often aspire to be CEOs and win over themselves that they own the acumen to handle it. They rarely do. Great developers are great artists, not suits. There are exceptions to the rule, of feed, but by and large rising developers would do uttermost better to hire an experienced executive team up and tick their egos at the door. That, or immix with every bit talented, like-minded firms where they should still hire the aforementioned suits. I foresee the consolidation in our business similar thereto of the movie industry. Several publishers leave sink in up to be "the majors," a some will personify "miniskirt majors" and differentiate in niche markets and genres, and there'll be a hale civilisation of indie developers – far more robust than today's landscape – many of whom will be elysian to their careers by user-created complacent. Timeline for paradigm shift: three to five years.
"Magazines are dead, long live magazines!"
This isn't really something that I – or anyone else – could dispute; print is dying a slow and painful death, especially the enthusiast publications serving our concern. That said, they're not going anywhere for quite some time. At the ECA, we're looking into a manakin that may be of interest for our members, and we've also noticed that unusual formerly print-only products are now thriving online in the digital form. The bigger concern is really one of the valuate proposal challenge, which we don't discuss nearly plenty. Gamers are finicky about what they'll wage for, and if they can get the same (Oregon at to the lowest degree exchangeable) content online gratis, wherefore would they pay? That's a such larger, more earthshaking question than the confines of this article will licence, but it's at the root of the problem for cartridge publishers. The just news is that publishing companies are an intrepid bunch, and they know that verity value they induce to consumers is in the knowledge base and expertise of their editorial staffs. As long as they can transition the model and port wine it to a different medium, there's no ground to presage gloominess and doom.
"Content is king!"
Long live the king! Here's where the original-political party publishers in truth need to be concerned. I start noted that my Logos, now 10, became a LEGO Star Wars fan not when he was performin it happening the Xbox, but when he had that privilege taken away and booted up a transcript for the Mac. He went connected, as I noticed, to play it in all iteration – using friend's consoles, handhelds, you name it. He ingested the media because he loved the mental object and execution. Helium could care for less who manufactured the device that played it, the stimulant device he used or fifty-fifty the quality of the graphics. He liked the content. The same will likely be dead on target of the Lego set Indiana John Paul Jones games. He reads the books, watches the educational "Adventures of Young Indiana Jones" connected the History Conduct, the movies … see the theme here? The more attention I paying, the more I realized that Generations X and Y have grown up brand loyal. The reason, every bit best I can determine, is our parents couldn't afford to buy every gaming gimmick, so we got the one that we begged/saved for and that was the brand. With this generation, it's not so. They're agnostic because they can afford to be. It's all about the content.
"Game prices will eventually begin to fall."
Totally agree, and in the font of everything logical. Here's why: Consumers are willing to pay in that previously discussed value proposition challenge, but not if they can get a similar experience elsewhere. Indeed if Battlefield Heroes is a raving success and EA hindquarters lick how to coif information technology for free, profitably, it volition lead to new business models. Skeptical? I give you the amazing success of web email as an example. Why pay AOL monthly when Google gives it to you free? Thither are ways to make phenomenal games, with amazingly compelling gameplay for a song point. In-game advert, sponsorships, little-transactions, tie-ins, giveaways … all of these are revenue-displacing venues. Why stop at the achiever of the Burger King games for Xbox? Wherefore can't there live a unhurt merchandise line that mitigates the toll associated with development via alternate revenue streams? Doing thus would coarse gaming up to the masses in a farther more profound way.
Hal Halpin is the president and founder of the Entertainment Consumers Association (ECA), the rank organization which represents gamers.
https://www.escapistmagazine.com/the-crystal-ball/
Source: https://www.escapistmagazine.com/the-crystal-ball/